The transitional probabilities of developing alcohol-related diseases/conditions by age, gender and drinking status will be calculated. Age-specific morbidity rates of all diseases except hypertension in the general population will be obtained from a database from the Burden of Disease Research Program Thailand (BOD Thailand). The rate of developing hypertension as well as the rate of developing liver cancer in patients with cirrhosis, and the rate of developing haemorrhagic stroke in patients with hypertension will be derived from a literature review. The morbidity rates among the general population will then be converted to the annual transitional probability by using formula (1)

(1)

Given that the general population consists of current drinkers, former drinkers and abstainers, there is a need to convert the probability of developing alcohol-related diseases among the general population into the probability of developing alcohol-related diseases among the abstainers using formula (2)

(2)

where

Pla=Probability of developing the diseases in lifetime abstainers,

Pgenpop=Probability of developing the diseases in general population,

Prevfd=Prevalence of former drinkers,

Prevcd=Prevalence of current drinkers,

RRfd=Relative risk of developing the diseases in former drinkers, as compared with abstainers,

RRcd=Relative risk of developing the diseases in current drinkers, as compared with abstainers.

It should be noted that the prevalence of alcohol drinking will be collected from the 2021 Heath Behavior of Population Survey13 while gender-specific RRs of developing the diseases will be derived from related epidemiological studies. The annual probabilities of developing the diseases among current and former drinkers will then be estimated using formulas (3) and (4)

(3)

(4)

where

Pla=Probability of developing the diseases in lifetime abstainers,

Pcd=Probability of developing the diseases in current drinkers,

Pfd=Probability of developing the diseases in former drinkers,

RRcd=Relative risk of developing the diseases in current drinkers, as compared with abstainers,

RRfd=Relative risk of developing the diseases in former drinkers, as compared with abstainers.

It is important to note that AUDs are 100% attributable to alcohol.2 Therefore, the annual probabilities of developing AUDs among lifetime abstainers and former drinkers will be set at 0. The annual remission rate of AUDs will be obtained from a literature review. The annual probability of developing hypertension, haemorrhagic stroke, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer among general population will be used to estimate the probabilities among individuals without AUDs (online supplemental formula S1). Subsequently, it will be converted into the probability among patients with AUDs by multiplying the probability among patients without AUDs by the relevant RRs (online supplemental formula S2).

In our analysis, not all current drinkers but only binge drinking will increase the risk of receiving a road injury. The annual probability of experiencing road injuries among abstainers will be estimated from the annual probability of receiving a road injury in the general population (which consisted of lifetime abstainer, former drinker, current drinker with binge drinking, and current drinker without binge drinking) after considering the prevalence of binge drinking and the risk of binge drinking on the road injury (online supplemental formula S3). The probability of road injuries among binge drinkers will then be estimated based on the probability of receiving a road injury among abstainers considering for an increased risk of experiencing a road injury due to binge drinking, the annual frequency of binge drinking in binge drinkers, and the proportion of drink driving in binge drinkers (online supplemental formula S4). Information on the annual frequency of binge drinking and proportion of drink driving in binge drinker will be derived from the 2021 Heath Behavior of Population Survey.13 Finally, to estimate the annual probability of road injuries among current drinker, the proportion of current drinker with binge drinking will be multiplied with the annual probability of getting road injuries among binge drinker.

Age-specific mortality rates of the diseases (except for hypertension) in the general population will be obtained from the BOD Thailand. For hypertension, the mortality rate will be derived from a database from the Strategy and Planning Division, Office of the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Public Health. The annual probabilities of death from the other causes in the general population will be estimated by subtracting the sum of the probabilities of death from the alcohol-related diseases included in the model from the annual probabilities of death in the Thai population, which will be obtained from the WHO life tables.20

Details of RRs and transitional probabilities that will be included in the analysis along with its sources are reported in online supplemental tables S1 and S2.